The Challenge of Predicting Real IB Grades

How effective are school exams and mock exams in predicting a student's actual IB score? The answer, given the structure of the program, is often complicated.

We face several inherent difficulties when trying to assign accurate Predicted Grades (PGs) in the IB Diploma Programme (DP):

📝 DP 1 Exams Don't Capture the Full Picture

Since DP 1 students haven't covered the entire curriculum, exams based only on taught material, even if sourced from past IB papers, don't fully reflect their potential.

Furthermore, relying only on textbook exercises or questions from foreign systems, while testing knowledge, fails to prepare students for the specific expectations of IB: the terminology, command terms, and mark schemes.

🧠 The DP 2 Balance: Forgetting vs. Motivation

As DP 2 progresses, students risk forgetting earlier topics.

• Testing all content from the beginning (spiral curriculum) gives a truer reflection, but it can demotivate students who are struggling to catch up.
• Testing only the latest units, conversely, leads to neglecting revision of old topics.

This is why incorporating regular revisiting and assessment of DP 1 material is crucial.

🔒 The Mock Exam Paradox

The final mock exams, used to determine PGs, are often based on the most recently published IB paper.

This creates a dilemma:

• Some students use it for genuine practice.
• Others might seek out and memorize the answers beforehand just to inflate their predicted score.

This makes an objective measure of their true achievement extremely difficult.

🤔 The Big Question

Considering these challenges, what is the most robust and reliable way to predict a student's final IB subject grade accurately?

What is the single best strategy you have found to forecast the real IB subject grade a student will achieve?

💬 Please share your ideas and experiences in the comments below. Let's exchange best practices to make our assessment process as accurate and fair as possible.